PUBLI : Isabelle Chort et Maëllys de la Rupelle, « Managing the impact of climate on migration : evidence from Mexico », Journal of Population Economics, 35 : 1777–1819


Although there is a growing lite­ra­ture on the impact of climate and weather-related events on migra­tion, little is known about the miti­ga­ting effect of poli­cies directed toward the agri­cul­tural sector, or aimed at insu­ring against envi­ron­mental disas­ters. This paper uses state-level data on migra­tion flows between Mexico and the USA from 1999 to 2012 to inves­ti­gate the miti­ga­ting impact of an agri­cul­tural cash transfer program (PROCAMPO) and a disaster fund (Fonden) on the migra­tion response to weather shocks. We find that Fonden decreases migra­tion in response to heavy rain­fall, hurri­canes and droughts. Increases in PROCAMPO amounts paid to small produ­cers play a more ambi­guous role in the migra­tion response to shocks. Changes in the distri­bu­tion of PROCAMPO payments favo­ring more vulne­rable produ­cers in the non-irri­gated ejido sector, however, seem to miti­gate the impact of droughts on migration.

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