PUBLI : Dimitri Defrance, Flore Gubert et Esther Delesalle, « Migration response to drought. An empirical analysis using panel data on Malian localities over the 1987–2009 period », Environment and Development Economics, 2022


This paper combines popu­la­tion and climate data to esti­mate the volume of migra­tion induced by the drought events that have hit Mali since the late 1980s. The results show that droughts have had the effect of decrea­sing net migra­tion rates in the affected loca­li­ties. This is true for both men and women, regard­less of their age. The effect of drought episodes, however, is found to differ accor­ding to loca­li­ties and house­holds’ capa­city to adapt to climatic constraints : it fades in loca­li­ties charac­te­rized by more diver­si­fied crops and in areas that receive more rain­fall on average. Climate shocks also had an impact on inter­na­tional mobi­lity : over the 2004–2009 period, around 2300 addi­tional depar­tures per year can be attri­buted to the droughts that hit Mali during the 2000s. We fore­cast that, under different climate scena­rios and popu­la­tion growth projec­tions, mobi­lity induced by drought events will substan­tially grow in the next decades.

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