PUBLI : Anda David, Mohamed Ali Marouani, Charbel Nahas et Björn Nilsson, “The economics of the Syrian refugee crisis in neighbouring countries : The case of Lebanon”, Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, 2019


In this article, we inves­ti­gate the effects of a massive displa­ce­ment of workers from a war-​torn economy on the economy of a neigh­bou­ring country. Applying a general equi­li­brium approach to the Leba­nese economy, we explore effects from various compo­nents of the crisis on the labour market, the produc­tion appa­ratus and macroe­co­nomic indi­ca­tors. Along with previous lite­ra­ture, our findings suggest limited or no adverse effects on high-​skilled native workers, but a nega­tive impact on the most vulne­rable Leba­nese workers. When aid takes the form of invest­ment subsi­dies, signi­fi­cantly better growth and labour market pros­pects arise, recal­ling the neces­sity of comple­men­ting huma­ni­ta­rian aid with deve­lop­ment aid to succeed in achie­ving long-​term objec­tives. This may however not be poli­ti­cally viable in a context where refu­gees are consi­dered as temporary.