- Marion Mercier (Université Paris-Dauphine) ;
- Marlon Seror (University of Bristol).
HORAIRES ET LIEU :
- 16:30–19:00 ;
- PSE, 48 Bd Jourdan 75014 Paris, Salle R1-09.
Marion Mercier (Université Paris-Dauphine)
The joint dynamics of emigration and conflict : From peace-wrecking to peace-building diasporas (travail conjoint avec Fabio Mariani et Thierry Verdier)
Qualitative literature shows that many abroad-living communities of migrants have played a decisive role in conflicts occurring in their home country, and that the peace-wrecking or peace-building nature of their role has evolved over time. Based on country-level panel data, we empirically investigate the dynamic relationship between emigration and conflict in migrants’ country of origin. While country trajectories are diverse, we emphasize a recurrent pattern where the initially positive correlation between emigration and violence becomes negative over time. Evidence of a changing dynamic relationship between emigration and conflict, based on OLS and on a gravity-based instrumentation strategy, consistently suggest that initially peace-wrecking emigration tends to become peace-building. We build a two-group theoretical model of conflict allowing migrants to interact with the home economy, in order to enlighten these empirical results. While migrants’ involvement in the conflict of their home country is likely to participate to violence escalation in a static framework, we find that, over time, the evolution of the number and characteristics of emigrants can make abroad-living communities become a peace-building force for the origin country.
Marlon Seror (University of Bristol)
Migrants and Firms : Evidence from China (travail conjoint avec Clement Imbert et Yifan Zhang)
This paper provides causal empirical evidence that rural-urban migration lowers urban firm productivity in developing countries. We use longitudinal data on Chinese manufacturing firms between 2001 and 2006, and exploit exogenous variation in rural-urban migration due to agricultural price shocks for identification. We find that following a migrant inflow, labor costs decline and employment grows. Within firm, labor productivity decreases sharply and remains low in the longer run. Within industry and location, it is low-productivity firms that grow the most, so that aggregate labor productivity falls even faster. Since migrants favor high-productivity destinations, migration strongly equalizes factor productivity across locations.