Anda David, Mohamed Ali Marouani, Charbel Nahas et Björn Nilsson, « The Economics of the Syrian refugee crisis in neighboring countries. The case of Lebanon » (Working paper), 2018

• Collec­tion : série des docu­ments de travail du DIAL
• Langue : anglais
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In this article, we inves­ti­gate the effects of a massive displa­ce­ment of workers from a war-torn economy on the economy of a neigh­bo­ring country. Applying a general equi­li­brium approach to the Leba­nese economy, we explore effects from various compo­nents of the crisis on the labor market, the produc­tion appa­ratus, and macroe­co­nomic indi­ca­tors. Along with previous lite­ra­ture, our findings suggest limited or no adverse effects on high-skilled native workers, but a nega­tive impact on the most vulne­rable Leba­nese workers is found. When aid takes the form of invest­ment subsi­dies, signi­fi­cantly better growth and labor market pros­pects arise, recal­ling the neces­sity of comple­men­ting huma­ni­ta­rian aid with deve­lop­ment aid to succeed in achie­ving long-term objec­tives. This may however not be poli­ti­cally viable in a context where refu­gees are consi­dered as temporary.